The NY Director of the American Jewish Committee (AJC) Writes: There are two Jewish subgroups that appear to diverge from the majority-Democratic consensus—Orthodox Jews and Russian Jews. While the Ohio and Florida samples do not contain enough Orthodox respondents to draw any conclusions, the national survey shows Romney beating Obama by 54 percent to 40 percent among the Orthodox. The edge for the Republican is also reflected in the president’s high unfavorable ratings in the Orthodox community on each of the issues.
Although it was held earlier in the year and hence includes many more “undecided” responses—41 percent—than the other surveys, AJC’s survey of Russian Jewish New Yorkers similarly favored Romney over Obama, 47 percent to 12 percent. This was consistent with the last two presidential elections, when a majority of Russian Jews also favored the Republican candidates.
Barring any October surprise, then, Jewish voters will in all likelihood give the bulk of their support to the Democrats, as in presidential elections past. Yet there are signs that this political tradition might erode over time. The Orthodox tendency to maintain high levels of Jewish affiliation and to have more children than other American Jews—characteristics clearly evident in the recent demographic survey of the Jews of New York City—portend a far greater voice for Orthodoxy in the Jewish community, and together with the steady integration of Russian Jews into American Jewish life, may eventually change the political profile of American Jewry.