Some Democrats argue that Republican “obstructionism” and “constant DC infighting” is holding back the job market, but looking back at some of the most chaotic moments in Washington politics of the last 40 years, one sees that the job market continued doing just fine despite “infighting.” Heck, even with an economy 1/3 the current size and off the heels of the 1973 oil crisis, the US produced 1.3 million jobs in the 12 months leading up to Nixon’s resignation. Perhaps the two millions jobs of the last 12 months is not the best considering the current size of the economy, but that is at the feet of Obama’s weak economic policies. Infighting, as recent history shows, has nothing to do with it. See Chart Here
Author Archives: Yossi Gestetner
Bill, Hillary and Obama’s tweets and posts about Nelson Mandela are very self-centered. The Clintons called him Madiba; the name used for him out of affection, and Bill’s tweet showed him sitting with Mandela (“my friend Madiba”). The WH posted a photo of Obama visiting Mandela’s prison cell. Bush 43 on the other hand did nothing of this kind. His center simply released a short statement, which is interesting because Bush did more for South Africa (which Mandela led 1994-1999) than Obama and Clinton combined as illustrated in my tweet:
2013 is coming to an end and now is time to once again take a look at the economic Stimulus package signed by President Obama in March of 2009.
Here is why:
In days before being inaugurated, Obama’s team projected that if we have a Stimulus package of $775 billion, the U.S. Economy will produce a net of between 3.3 million and 4.1 million non-farm jobs by the fourth quarter (the last three months) of 2010. No, it was not a projection of “jobs saved or created! Instead, the paper wrote that if the Stimulus reaches mid-point of the above projected job growth, the US will have 137.55 million people on payroll at the fourth quarter of 2010.
Well, we are at the fourth quarter of 2013 and we are short of this target by close to one million.
The Stock Market moves one way or another based on the monthly Employment Report from the payroll firm ADP. Every month, two days before Government releases its own estimate, ADP releases a report of how many private sector jobs have been added or lost in the previous month. ”It has had an average miss of 41,000,” John Briggs from RBS told CNBC, but the fact is ADP has been off by only a few thousand jobs per month and here is the what people like Briggs are missing:
The deadly terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India happened five years ago this week. Indians, Americans and Jews were all targeted in the assault. But amid the carnage of that night, a story of hope and survival emerged, involving a Jewish child and his Indian nanny, who saved the boy during the attack and has stayed by his side ever since. Moshe is a typical, rambunctious 7-year-old. See Video Here
Since Bush left office, you don’t read much about gas prices but the price for a regular gallon gas at the pump was on average $3.243 in November, according to the Energy Information Administration.
November 2011 and November 2012, both under Obama, are the only two Novembers to be higher than what Americans paid in recent weeks. Worse, November 2013 prices are higher than all but 7 of Bush’s 96 months in office.
If you are a family of four living in Brooklyn with a personal pre-tax income of $71,000 a year, good luck trying to pay for health insurance.
Here is the simple math:
If Child Health Plus will be around in 2014, you will pay $90 a month to cover your two children. This is a $1,080 cost for the year; which is indeed very cheap and a great help for taxable families. However, if you and your spouse want to enroll in a middle of the road (Silver) Obamacare Plan, you will need to pay an after-subsidy annual premium of $6,745, excluding your children’s coverage.
Andrew Couts of Digital Trends took a lot of heat for reporting early in October that the Government has already spent more than $600 million on healthcare.gov. The push-back was so strong that the website issued a correction and said the number was above $500M and not all of it was spent at the time.
But today David Powner from the Government Accountability Office confirmed this number to Congress saying, “By the end of September, [it was] north of $600 million spent.”
The 4.8 million policies that were canceled due to Obamcare is a number collected by major media organizations, but the rest of the numbers in the headline is from the Obama Administration which reports that 106,185 people have ‘selected’ – but not all of them paid for – a health insurance plans through the exchanges. 79,391 of those selections are from State exchanges while only 26,794are from the Federal Exchange which is spread in 36 States. This number of selections is well-short of the 1.2M people that were suppose to sign up in this time frame.
Those numbers are as of November 2nd.
Separately, almost 400,000 who logged onto the Exchange websites are eligible for Medicaid.
Market Watch notes that “Roughly 26.9 million unique visitors went to state-run and federally run exchange web sites during the first month, and 3.16 million callers checked in on call centers, HHS said.”
Secretary of State John Kerry thinks you are stupid or that it’s 1972 and no one can double-check news and facts! Following the collapse of the Nuclear talks with Iran, Kerry said Sunday that the President held all along that a no deal with Iran is better than a bad deal. Kerry made it appear as if the U.S. backed away from the talks because only a bad deal was in the works, but the fact is the French upended Kerry and rejected a deal as per Saturday reports, and Kerry today morning admits that in fact the U.S. was ready to move forward with a deal, a bad deal that is, but Iran said no thank you.
The one who smiles now is Bibi Netanyahu. He is the one that argued a no deal is better than a bad deal. He begged his “allies” in the West not to make these offers to Iran. Kerry refused. He walked into the talks Saturday head-held-high thinking he is on the cusp of a historic deal, but all went to hell.
Of all the stats coming out of the Virginia Gubernatorial, one has failed to get much attention. President Obama won the 18-29 age group by a solid margin of 23 points over the “main-stream moderate” Romney. It was probably enough to give Obama a second term. But guess what? According to the VAGOV exit polls, Ken Cuccinelli, who was smeared as the most rigid right winger on social issues, lost this age group by only 5 points 40% to 45%. Sarvis the Libertarian picked up the rest 15%.
Turnout in this week’s Rockland County elections were at record levels. Republicans, Democrats, Preserve Ramapo-types; Liberal and Ultra Orthodox Jews went to the polls in high numbers. In this turnout, Republican County Executive Candidate Ed Day defeated his Democratic opponent David Fried by a clear margin.
This in one sentence means Mr. Day has a mandate to lead. The question remains how he will lead it.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 148K jobs were added in September; which is below the 193K jobs added a month earlier but it is well above the poor 84K jobs added in July. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.2%, which to put it into perspective, when Obama campaigned this time October 2008 that the economy is bad, the Unemployment Rate (from September) was 6.1%. Worse, if millions would have not given up looking for work in recent years, the Unemployment Rate would be now above 9%.
The Unemployment Rate average for 2013 is 7.53%, while the average UR at this time in 2008 was 5.44%. For all of 2008, the UR was on average 5.8%; a number that the pace of the current economy wont reach any time soon.
Obama’s approval rating today morning among Independents is at 34%, according to the latest CNN Poll. Last week, Obama was at 37% among Independents according to a Pew poll, and ten days ago Obama was at 33% among Independents according to the WSJ/NBC poll. This gives Obama an average approval rating among Independents of 34.66% but all we read the last two weeks is how bad the GOP is doing due to the shutdown.
Obama’s overall approval rating in these polls is below 45%, driven by the 1/3 Independents and 80%-plus Democrats who back him.
At times things go really crazy at Politico. Here is the latest example.
Today morning Politico’s main headline reads “Donors’ frustration with GOP Mounts.” The lead-in reports that “Republican donors were horrified in November after pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into campaigns for president and Congress with nothing to show for it. A year later they’re appalled by how little has changed, angered by the behavior of Republican lawmakers during a string of legislative battles this year capped by the shutdown, and searching for answers.”
The US had 18 Government Shutdowns since 1976 spanning a total of 126 days
8 shutdowns were done with a Democrat House/Senate (mostly Carter)
2 shutdowns with a full GOP Congress (Clinton)
7 shutdowns with a Dem House; GOP Senate (Reagan’s first six years)
1 Shutdown with a GOP House and Dem Senate (Obama’s second term)
As per days:
The narrative out of Washington has been how bad the shutdown is for the GOP brand. Indeed, the GOP took a beating in the polls but so did Democrats. Big Time! However the main reason why Congressional Democrats are doing better in the polls is because 1) their own base rallies around them during political crisis whereas the GOP base, comprised of people who can think for themselves, has diverse opinions. 2) The Media and journalists keep hyping the bad GOP numbers which in itself kills the GOP even more all while brazenly ignoring the bad polling numbers of the Democrats.
The latest article by Nate Silver will make his Liberal/Dem fan base go crazy. He agrees that the GOP had little-to-no negative fallout from the 1995-1996 shutdown, and about the current shutdown he writes “the media is probably overstating the magnitude of the shutdown’s political impact.”
But what will drive the Left crazy is this line: “Very few generic ballot polls have been released since the shutdown began, and the exceptions are from dubious polling firms like Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports.”
The level of bias and laziness in the media is SICK! The AP headlines a story that according to their latest poll “GOP gets the blame in Shutdown.” If you read the article it seems 62% blame the GOP and “about half” say Obama is also to blame. What does “about half” mean? Give us the direct number! But striking is this. The article writes, “Most Americans disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job, the poll suggests, with 53 percent unhappy with his performance and 37 percent approving of it. Congress is scraping rock bottom, with a ghastly approval rating of 5 percent.”
33 year old Republican NY State Senator Lee Zeldin is planning to jump into the NY1 House race against Tim Bishop. Zeldin ran for the seat in 2008 but he picked up only 41% of the vote. Since then however, Bishop has been weakened as the district moved right and after Randy Altschuler ran two times against Bishop. One in 2010 when Bishop won by 500 votes and again in 2012 when Bishop picked up 52% of the vote while Obama picked up only 50%.
Bishop is now being investigated by the House Ethics Committee for allegedly getting involved in arranging a fireworks permit for the Bar Mitzvah of a donor’s son.
According to Pew Research, 81% Ultra Orthodox Jews in the US and 82% Evangelicals believe that God gave Israel to the Jews. On the no side, 13% Ultra Orthodox Jews; 12% Evangelicals don’t believe in it. Looking at the broader picture, only 40% overall US Jews and 44% of the overall United States population believe that God gave Israel to the Jews.
WOW! There were SIX gov shutdowns (average 11 days each) from Oct ’976 to Oct ’979. US gained 10.4M jobs in those 3 years!
— Yossi Gestetner (@YossiGestetner) September 29, 2013
1995 economy rose by $269 billion and gained 2.1M jobs. 1996 economy rose by $385B and gained 2.8M jobs. #Shutdown
— Yossi Gestetner (@YossiGestetner) September 29, 2013
Here is a history of government shutdowns
The race for Governor in New Jersey seems to be a blowout for Christie so it will be tough to ever measure what I am addressing here, but Christie’s camp is out with a 30 second ad bashing his Dem opponent Barabaro Buono who is not very popular. Indeed, it rips her like crazy but it mentions her name six different times, and most of the ad has her name written on the screen. Don’t you think this may help Buono’s name recognition among Democrats and left leaning Independents? With 50 days out I am sure many folks don’t even know ho is running against Christie so with this ad promoting her name, many voters will very likely go out there and read more about her and may perhaps even agree with her. See the video ad here
Meet T.W. Shannon: Oklahoma’s first/youngest African American House Speaker who is a Republican. He says here: We (The GOP) need to lose like Democrats: When Dems lose like in 200 they say election was stolen. When we lose, we say the Republican Part is over. He is very bright and charismatic too. See the Video Here: